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Baseball Tips

It's an obvious fact that baseball is a game of streaks, and nowhere is this more evident than in pitching. If a starter is demonstrating particularly good or particularly bad recent form, it might not be compensated for in the line and there may be value in playing on (or against) the starter in question. Overall, however, starting pitching receives way too much emphasis when evaluating baseball from a wagering standpoint.

Understand that baseball is a game of streaks

This is no secret, of course, but it is something to be aware of when betting on baseball. No matter what else you find relevant about a game, you should think twice about betting against a team that has won three or more games in a row or on a team that has lost three or more games in a row. This may sound superstitious, but it's a valuable rule to follow. You'll always be better off in the long run by not going against a winning or losing streak the majority of the time.

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Home field advantage just doesn't matter

Of all major sports, there may be less advantage to playing at home in baseball than in any other. This is especially true during the long regular season. Granted there are teams that do better in certain ballparks than others, but this is more a function of the design of the ballpark and the personnel of the team than any home field advantage. Some parks are clearly “pitcher's parks” or “hitter's parks”, but it works both ways - the opposing pitchers and hitters often have the same advantage or disadvantage as the home team’s players. Furthermore, bad teams are frequently overvalued at home, which results in good value on the visitor. Over the course of season, most teams will probably do better at home than on the road but the higher prices you’ll have to pay will negate this fact. More often than not, “home field advantage” shouldn’t be a consideration in handicapping a game.


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